A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has got something to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
